a deep Geophysical Observatory at the North Anatolian Fault
The key questions to be addressed by GONAF are:
a. How do earthquakes nucleate and how do earthquake ruptures propagate?
b. How does the structural heterogeneity across the fault affect the earthquake nucleation process and how is the dynamic propagation of a shear rupture affected by the local fault structure?
c. How do earthquake source parameters scale with magnitude?
d. How is deformation partitioned between aseismic creep and seismic slip at the termination of a major earthquake rupture?
e. What are the orientations of the principal stresses close to the fault zone?
f. Is the North Anatolian Fault Zone in North-Western Turkey a weak or a strong plate boundary?
In addition there is a series of site-specific problems that are of fundamental importance to seismic hazard assessment for the Istanbul metropolitan area:
a. What is the level of microseismic activity at the > 100 km seismic gap below the Sea of Marmara and especially in direct vicinity to the Istanbul metropolitan region and how is it distributed in space and time?
b. What is the fault locking depth south of Istanbul as obtained from seismicity?
c. Is there active normal faulting along the offshore portion of the NAFZ (implication for Tsunami potential)?
d. Does the strike−slip segment along the northern Cinarcik Basin propagate NE towards Istanbul?
e. What is the continuation of the faults at depth? Is there a deep-seated master fault in the Sea of Marmara south of Istanbul?
f. What is the detailed velocity structure of crust and upper mantle south of Istanbul?
g. What is the heat flow close to the fault zone?
h. What is the fluid/gas flow close to the fault zone?